Macro
Countercurrent
by Cape Island Point Research
A different way to look at what everyone else assumes about markets and the economy, built from public data. Each post lays out the consensus, my view, and what would change my mind. I don't have to be right. I just don't want to stay wrong, so when the facts move, I'll come back and say so.
September 30, 2026
Banning diesel exports would raise your gas bill, not cut it
Consensus: Keep American diesel at home and prices at the pump will come down.
My view: An export ban would push refiners to run less crude, which cuts gasoline output too. Pump prices would likely rise, and the East Coast, including Charleston, would see the least relief.
General market commentary, not personal investment advice. Positions, if any, are disclosed at the end of each post.